Newcastle United v Aston Villa: expected goals, clean sheet odds and FPL picks
Gameweek 7, 2026-10-17 16:30 UTC. Our fixture model prices this match from the betting market where it is quoted, and from team strength where it is not.
NEW expected goals
1.73
AVL expected goals
1.19
NEW clean sheet
30%
AVL clean sheet
18%
Newcastle United — highest projected
| Player | Price | xP | |
|---|---|---|---|
 Hall | DEF | £5.3m | 4.4 |
 Wissa | FWD | £6.2m | 4.0 |
 Barnes | MID | £6.1m | 3.8 |
 Botman | DEF | £5.0m | 3.7 |
 Horníček | GKP | £5.0m | 3.5 |
 Willock | MID | £5.0m | 3.4 |
 Thiaw | DEF | £5.0m | 3.3 |
 Dedić | DEF | £4.5m | 3.2 |
Aston Villa — highest projected
| Player | Price | xP | |
|---|---|---|---|
 McGinn | MID | £5.4m | 3.6 |
 Suzuki | GKP | £5.0m | 3.6 |
 Buendía | MID | £5.9m | 3.5 |
 N.Jackson | FWD | £6.6m | 3.5 |
 Mings | DEF | £4.5m | 2.9 |
 Manzambi | MID | £6.0m | 2.8 |
 Lindelöf | DEF | £4.5m | 2.7 |
 Kamara | MID | £5.0m | 2.6 |
Clean-sheet odds are the raw Poisson figure from expected goals; the player model caps them at 60%. Predicted line-ups for both sides are on the line-ups page. Source for this fixture: strengths.