xP Expected Pointless Gameweek 2 · prediction frozen · graded Monday
An AI runs this FPL team · every call graded in public

The machine is top of the league.
The experts are not.

A machine manages a real Fantasy Premier League squad. Every Friday it publishes its team and its predicted points — frozen before the deadline. Every Monday it grades every call in public, against the game's own experts. Even the wrong ones. Especially the wrong ones.

Real team · Real deadline · Real consequences Machine vs The Experts, every week No deleted predictions. Ever.
The scoreboard
Gameweek 1 · Final · retro-scored
57MACHINE 55EXPERTS
The account's opening week — edged the experts by two. Both sides captained Haaland; he returned two points. GW1 was picked by hand, before the machine took charge. The Scout named a full 15 that week, so their XI is reconstructed from their own bench and captain calls, scored on real points.
+2 · GW1
Gameweek 2 · Live · The Machine Era
57.1MACHINE 50.0EXPERTS
The machine's first week in charge. It backs Haaland's armband; the experts gave theirs to Bruno Fernandes. One of us grades badly on Monday.
MACHINE PROJECTION +7.1
Season series · Machine vs Experts
1 — 0
Every gameweek is a round — winner takes the week, and the tally lives here all season. Gameweek 1 is final; the current gameweek counts live and settles on Monday night.
Coming soon

Race the machine
with your team.

Enter your FPL team ID and take your own row in these tables — your line on the chart, your score against the machine and the experts, live all gameweek. Join the waitlist and you're first in when it opens.

# TEAMGWTOT
1 Expected PointlessThe Machine 3390
2 The FPL ExpertsThe Scout Selection 1368
? Your TeamYou
The format
Friday
The Machine's Team

The XI, the captain, the transfers, and a predicted score for every player — published before the deadline and frozen. The experts' team goes on the board next to it.

Weekend
The football happens

Nothing to post. The machine doesn't get to explain itself mid-round, and neither do the experts. The predictions sit there, in public, aging.

Monday
The Reckoning

Every call graded: CALLED IT or WRONG. The swing settles the week's round of Machine vs Experts. Wrong calls get the mark — no excuses, no deletions.

The mark keeps score
xP
The stat — expected points. Friday's mark.
xP
The face — Monday's mark, on every wrong call.

The flip is earned, never decorative. Upright, xP is the statistic the whole model runs on. When a graded call goes wrong, the statistic falls over and becomes a face with its tongue out — at us, not at you. When the machine is right, the mark stays a number.

The working — the machine shows its maths
Fixtures priced from the market

Every game starts as a pair of expected-goal rates fitted to the betting market — not vibes, not last week's highlights.

CRY v MCI0.47 — 3.66City clean sheet 60%
MUN v IPS1.91 — 0.66Utd clean sheet 52%
COV v HUL1.34 — 1.34clean sheet 26%
Every forecast is a sum, not a hunch
Haaland — x6.8 the machine's armband
Guéhi — x6.6 attack + clean sheet + DefCon + bonus
B.Fernandes — x4.8 the armband the experts chose
appearanceattack (xG/xA) defence (clean sheets + DefCon points)bonus

Expected-goal rates from market odds · per-90 xG and xA · minutes-weighted form with a four-match half-life · leans on priors while the sample is thin · locked at the deadline, every week.

Next gameweek — the machine's early call
xP The Friday Brief

The machine's next-week XI, the sealed move when it unseals, and the full reasoning before every deadline. Free — unlocked with your email.

One brief a week plus Expected Pointless updates · unsubscribe any time · privacy.

The machine's next move — sealed

Three transfer plans priced for the machine's own squad — re-priced after a data correction (one free transfer banked, not two). With the hit properly costed, no plan clears the machine's evidence gate.

The machine's call: roll. Bank a second free transfer for Gameweek 4 and act from strength — the full reasoning drops with Friday's team, and gets graded like everything else here.

Gameweek 2 · preferred XI · 57.1 xP
GKPTzolakisx3.4
DEFGuéhi · Gvardiol · De Cuyperx14.9
MIDPalmer · Szoboszlai · Rogers · Ødegaardx17.5
FWDHaaland (C) · João Pedro · Wissax21.2

Built from scratch, any budget — the model’s ideal single-week team, frozen before the deadline and now being graded live on the board above.

Gameweek 3 · best XI from scratch · 62.2 xP
GKPTzolakisx3.4
DEFGuéhi · De Cuyper · Gvardiolx16.3
MIDSzoboszlai · Gakpo · Lewis-Potter · Ødegaardx17.2
FWDHaaland (C) · Isak · Thiagox23.2

A benchmark, not the plan — the XI the model would pick starting from scratch; the real squad changes by transfer only. Sanity-checked: Hinshelwood (x4.0) made the raw XI but is flagged 25% fit — excluded, Ødegaard promoted.

Previews — every fixture, priced by the machine

Predicted scores and clean-sheet odds from the machine's market-priced fixture model, frozen before the deadline.

Fixtures — Gameweek 2
Reviews — the archive
FULL TIME GAMEWEEK 1 · IN THE BOOKS · RATED BY THE CROWD FINAL

Player ratings ingested from 16 public sources per match · top haul from the official FPL scoring.

Team news — the injury wire
THE WIRE EVERY FLAGGED PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE · LIVE FROM THE OFFICIAL FEED LIVE

Loading the injury wire…

Straight from the official FPL availability feed — every flagged player in the league, updated live. The machine reads this before every call.

The record — graded calls
GRADED GAMEWEEK 1 · LAST WEEK'S VERDICTS — NOT TODAY'S NEWS GW1
Result Machine 57 — Experts 55GW1 · the experts beaten in week one — and the machine has been top of its leagues since ROUND WON
Machine White · Ødegaard · Dewsbury-HallGW1 · three elevens the experts left out — the calls that won the round 33 CALLED IT
Experts SangaréGW1 · two assists plus defensive-contribution points — their best call, and it still wasn't enough 14 CALLED IT
Both Haaland (C)GW1 · the whole world's armband — two points 4 xPWRONG
Machine ThiagoGW1 · 82 minutes, a missed penalty, nothing — stays on the record 0 xPWRONG
Experts The United double-upGW1 · Fernandes and Mbeumo, two points apiece 4 xPWRONG
The cast

The Machine

Picks the team

An AI running a full model — market odds, form, fixtures, minutes — over a real £100m squad. It publishes what it expects before every deadline, to the decimal, and lets Monday say whether it was clever.

The Experts

The establishment

FPL's own Scout Selection — the official site's recommended best team, published weekly. The machine scores their XI with the same model, then the football scores both of us for real.

The Best XI

The truth

The gameweek's actual top-scoring team, rebuilt live from the data as the football happens. Nobody picks it in advance — it exists to measure how far everyone fell short. The machine included.

House rules
  1. Frozen means frozen. Predictions publish before the deadline and never change. The grade is against what was published, not what we wish we'd said.
  2. Every call gets graded. Captaincy, transfers, bench order, the lot. A quiet miss is still a miss.
  3. Nothing gets deleted. The misses stay up. The misses are the show.
  4. The experts get a fair fight. Their team is taken exactly as published, scored by the same rules, graded on the same night.
  5. Overrules go on the record. If the machine's owner ever overrides a call, the change is logged and graded separately — no retroactive credit-claiming.
xP THE MACHINE'S INTEL — FREE