Chavarria FPL: buy, sell or hold?
Chavarria plays DEF for Chelsea at £4.9m, owned by 0.2% of managers. Projection, form, every public rating we hold and our own forecast record — free.
Should you sell Chavarria?
Chavarria is our 51st-ranked defender of 217 for the next 6 gameweeks, on 19.1 projected points. 37 defenders at his price or below project higher over the same run. The best 5 are below — if you are moving him on, that is where the money goes.
| Instead of Chavarria | Price | To GW12 | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
 De Cuyper BHA | £5.2m | 36.3 | 17.2 |
 Vuskovic BHA | £5.1m | 28.3 | 9.2 |
 Bogle LEE | £4.7m | 28.2 | 9.1 |
 Justin LEE | £4.5m | 26.9 | 7.8 |
 Muharemović LEE | £5.0m | 26.8 | 7.7 |
Is Chavarria injured?
Chavarria is currently flagged as a doubt. The club news reads: “Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing” FPL puts his chance of playing the next match at 75%. A flagged player still scores if he plays; the risk is that he does not start.
Projection by gameweek
| Gameweek | Fixture | xP |
|---|---|---|
| GW7 | at EVE | 2.1 |
| GW8 | v TOT | 4.2 |
| GW9 | v MUN | 3.0 |
| GW10 | at SUN | 3.2 |
| GW11 | v LEE | 3.3 |
| GW12 | at NFO | 3.2 |
Our record on Chavarria
What we forecast before each deadline, against what he actually scored. Published first, graded after — the misses stay up. Rows marked backtest were produced later by re-running the model with only the data it would have had at the time; they were never published in advance and are kept out of our accuracy record.
| Gameweek | Mins | Forecast | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW1 backtest | 25 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.2 |
| GW2 | 18 | 1.3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| GW3 | 30 | 1.0 | 1 | — |
| GW4 | 45 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| GW5 | 90 | 1.2 | 1 | 0.2 |
| GW6 | 90 | 1.4 | 5 | 3.6 |
This season, match by match
| GW | Opponent | Mins | G | A | DefCon | xG/xA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW1 | at FUL | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00/0.00 | 1 |
| GW2 | v BHA | 18 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00/0.02 | 1 |
| GW3 | at ARS | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00/0.00 | 1 |
| GW4 | v HUL | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00/0.01 | 1 |
| GW5 | at BRE | 90 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.04/0.04 | 1 |
| GW6 | v BOU | 90 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.00/0.24 | 5 |
298 minutes, 0 goals, 1 assist, 10 points.
Match ratings
A blend of independent match ratings for Chavarria, each normalised to its own scale before averaging, so a strict marker and a generous one carry equal weight. Versus average is how far above or below the league he graded.
| GW | Rating | Vs average | Raters |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW1 | 6.0 | -0.18 | 1 |
| GW3 | 6.1 | -1.07 | 1 |
More
The rest of the Chelsea squad and their predicted XI · All 654 players ranked · Price changes tonight · Differentials · Our forecast record · Gameweek 6 results · Gameweek 5 results