FPL GW7 review: Neto scores 15, Haaland 13

This FPL GW7 review starts with the headline numbers. The FPL average score was 59 and the highest was 122. Neto was the top scorer on 15 points, while Haaland, our model's captain, returned 13 points, or 26 once doubled.

Who scored the most in Gameweek 7?

The top of the list was mostly cheap midfielders and forwards with low ownership. Neto (£6.5m, 2.5% owned) scored two goals and collected three bonus points for his 15, against a projection of 3.3. Ayari (£5.4m, 0.5% owned) had a goal and an assist for 13, and Kostoulas (£5.7m, 9.8% owned) did the same for 12 from 70 minutes. Both play for Brighton, who are away at Liverpool next.

Haaland was the exception. At £15.7m and 76.8% owned he was the only heavily owned player among the top scorers, and his 13 points came from two goals and three bonus points. Our model had him at 10.3, so this was a good outcome for a forecast that was already high.

Where was our model right, and where was it badly wrong?

Across 304 graded players the mean absolute error was 1.98 points. That is a respectable average, but it hides a tail of hauls that no projection will see coming.

Biggest beats of the forecast:

• Neto: projected 3.3, scored 15
• Hato: projected 0.8, scored 11
• Ayari: projected 4.0, scored 13
• Evanilson: projected 3.6, scored 12
• Maddison: projected 1.0, scored 9

Biggest misses the other way:

• Danso: projected 3.0, scored -3
• Guéhi: projected 6.4, scored 1
• Janelt: projected 4.0, scored -1
• Sessegnon: projected 2.9, scored -2
• Yarmoliuk: projected 2.7, scored -2

Hato and Maddison are the clearest model failures: we gave them almost nothing and they returned 11 and 9. Guéhi is the more useful miss. He was projected at 6.4, which is high for a defender, and he returned one point. Our model still has him at 5.4 for Manchester City's trip to Aston Villa, so one bad week has not changed the view. At 17.8% owned he is a player to watch rather than sell on a single result.

Danso, Janelt, Sessegnon and Yarmoliuk all carry a projection of 0.0 for gameweek 8, so check team news before you keep any of them.

How did the model captain do?

Haaland was our model's captain pick and returned 26 points doubled. That was also the consensus choice at 76.8% ownership, so it gained little ground on rivals. Next up he is away at Aston Villa, with a projection of 8.8 for gameweek 8.

What does this mean for gameweek 8?

Single-week hauls from low-owned players are rarely repeated, and our projections reflect that. Neto is projected at 4.8 against Tottenham, Vuskovic at 4.8 at Liverpool, and Tavernier at 4.7 at Manchester United. Vuskovic is the one to note: 11 points in gameweek 7 and 30.7 projected over the next six at £5.1m.

On the season record, our team has beaten the FPL Experts in four of six gameweeks, 17 points ahead on total, and 46 points above the FPL average. See us v the FPL Experts for the full comparison.

How we worked this out

Projections are our model's expected points before the deadline, built from fixtures, starting probability and recent form. Points are the official FPL totals after the gameweek. The error figure is averaged over all 304 players graded. The full record is on our model accuracy page, and the gameweek 7 archive has the complete results.