FPL GW7 captain: Haaland leads at 10.3 xP

For the FPL GW7 captain, our model picks Haaland. He is projected at 10.3 expected points against IPS at home, with a 95% chance of starting and penalty duties. The deadline is Saturday 17 October, 11:00 UK.

The gap is the story. The next best option, De Cuyper, is projected at 7.3, which is 3.0 points behind. Nobody else in our top ten gets within 3.5 points of Haaland.

Who should I captain in FPL GW7?

Haaland, unless you have a strong reason to think otherwise. Our model has him at 10.3 xP, he is first on penalties, and 75.5% of managers own him. That ownership cuts both ways: captaining him protects you against the field rather than gaining on it, but with this much clear air in the projections, it is hard to argue for giving up points to chase a gain.

His next six fixtures also hold up in our projections: 49.7 expected points across the run, with 8.6 at Aston Villa (AVL) next and 9.5 against Fulham (FUL) later on. This is not a one-week spike.

Who are the safe alternatives?

The next three are all projected between 6.6 and 7.3, which is a long way short of Haaland, but they are useful if you do not own him or want a second armband option.

• De Cuyper (£5.1m, 36.4% owned) is projected at 7.3 against CRY at home, with an 89% start probability. A defender in the captaincy conversation says a lot about the fixture.
• Cherki (£7.9m, 33.0% owned) is projected at 6.8 against IPS at home, with a 91% start probability. He shares a fixture with Haaland, so captaining him does little to diversify.
• Groß (£6.0m, 40.4% owned) is projected at 6.6 against CRY at home. He takes penalties for Brighton and has a 90% start probability.

Saka is projected at 6.1 with a 93% start probability, the highest outside Haaland, and is on penalties. At 16.7% owned he is a modest differential.

Is there a differential captain?

Our rule is the highest projection among players under 10% owned. That gives Vuskovic, projected at 5.5 with an 89% start probability and 4.8% ownership. He is 4.8 points behind Haaland, so this is a punt, not a value pick. Captain him only if you need to chase a rank, and accept that you are giving up a lot of expected return.

What are the risks?

• Rotation or a knock. Haaland's start probability is 95%, so there is still a small chance he does not start. If you captain him, check the line-ups before the deadline.
• Variance. Projections are averages. A forward at 10.3 xP can still blank, and a low-owned defender can easily outscore him in a single week.
• Same-team exposure. Haaland, Cherki and Guéhi all play IPS at home. If City underperform, a Haaland captain and a Cherki or Guéhi core go down together.

Check predicted line-ups and injuries and team news before you lock the armband in.

How we worked this out

Our projections combine expected minutes, fixture difficulty, attacking and defensive output, set-piece duties and bonus points into a single expected-points figure per player per gameweek. They are forecasts, not facts. You can see how they have performed on our model accuracy page, and the full ranking sits on the captain picks page.