FPL GW7 team news: Liverpool doubts and injuries

FPL GW7 team news is dominated by Liverpool. Szoboszlai, Isak and Gakpo are all flagged at a 25% chance of playing, and the deadline is Saturday 17 October, 11:00 UK. Across the league 96 players carry a flag from 18 clubs, but only a handful matter for your decision. This is the shortlist, most owned first, with our model's view of who covers.

Which FPL GW7 injuries matter most?

The biggest by ownership is Szoboszlai at 23.3%. FPL's news reads "Hamstring injury - 25% chance of playing", and he has been flagged for five days. Our model has him at just 0.6 projected points for Brentford away, and he is not in our predicted XI. The likely replacement, Ngumoha, has a start probability of 19%, so there is no obvious Liverpool midfield cover.

Isak (12.4%) and Gakpo (6.7%) have both been flagged for 19 days with the same 25% chance. FPL lists "Thigh injury - 25% chance of playing" for Isak and "Ankle injury - 25% chance of playing" for Gakpo. Isak is still in our predicted XI, which says more about how thin Liverpool's options are than about his fitness. Danns is the likely cover at a 9% start probability. If you own any of the three, a 25% flag this close to the deadline is a reason to plan for a zero.

Who has been flagged in the last three days?

Five names are new: Gibbs-White, Mendy, Branthwaite, Isidor and Struijk.

• Gibbs-White (13.0% owned) is a "Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing", flagged today. He is in our predicted XI, and the cover, I.Sangaré, has an 11% start probability. Nottingham Forest host Arsenal, so a late call is possible.
• Mendy (6.0%) is out: "Groin injury - Expected back 31 Oct". Herrington is the likely replacement at 38%.
• Branthwaite (2.5%) is at 75%, flagged today, and is in our predicted XI. O'Brien covers at 9%.
• Isidor has a "Knock - 50% chance of playing". He is not in our predicted XI.
• Struijk (0.1%) is at 75% with a hamstring problem and is in our predicted XI.

Which doubts are probably fine?

A 75% flag is a coin you would usually take. Four of the 75% players are in our predicted XI: Schade (13.9% owned), Shaw (6.1%), Mainoo (1.4%) and Gibbs-White. Schade has been flagged for six days and has the fixture against Liverpool at home. Because the cover behind Schade is weak (Jensen at 31%), holding him costs little unless the news worsens.

Shaw has an "Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing". If he misses out, Dalot is the cover at 37%, so Manchester United's defence is not left empty. Mainoo is projected at 3.0 points for Leeds away, and Amad is the cover at only 12%.

Who is out for longer?

Several owned players are ruled out with no chance of playing:

• Tzolis (5.5%): "Hamstring injury - Expected back 1 Nov". Bruno G. covers at 37%.
• Pedro Porro (5.3%): "Hamstring injury - Unknown return date", flagged for 27 days. Van de Ven covers at 35%.
• James (4.6%): "Knee injury - Unknown return date". Fofana covers at 32%.
• Scott (3.2%): "Thigh injury - Unknown return date". Kluivert covers at 38%.
• Elanga (2.8%): "Unspecified injury - Expected back 25 Oct". Willock is the clear replacement at 80%, and our model has him at 3.4 points for Aston Villa at home.

Anyone holding these players is carrying a dead slot. The longer the return date, the stronger the case to move on now rather than wait for the next flag change.

Who is back?

Brobbey (5.4% owned) has come off a flag. Our model has him at 3.8 points for Bournemouth away, and 21.6 over the next six gameweeks, which is the strongest return in this group.

What should you do before the deadline?

• Check the 25% Liverpool players first. They carry the most risk and the thinnest cover.
• Treat the 75% flags as likely starters, and check the club's press conference or the line-ups page before the deadline.
• Move on from long-term injuries with unknown return dates rather than waiting.
• Our start probabilities for cover players are low almost everywhere, so a replacement is rarely a like-for-like swap.

See predicted line-ups for the latest, and every flag, club by club for the full list.

How we worked this out

Flags, chances of playing and news text come straight from the official FPL data. Start probabilities and projected points are our own model's forecasts, not facts, and they shift as news lands. A player counts as material if owned by at least 1% or in our predicted XI. Ownership is the FPL-wide percentage. Check /captain and /prices for the other pre-deadline calls.