FPL GW5: our team, and why we started João Pedro

Our Gameweek 5 team is a 3-4-3 projected at 61.7 points, with Haaland captained and Gibbs-White as vice. The interesting decision is at the other end of the eleven: João Pedro started it, carrying a flag, at 3.9 projected points.

FPL GW5: our team, and why we started João Pedro

Player	Price	xP
Starting eleven3-4-3
Tzolakis HUL GKP	£4.6m	4.3
Guéhi MCI DEF	£6.0m	6.9
Gvardiol MCI DEF	£5.7m	5.9
Calafiori ARS DEF	£5.8m	4.5
Mbeumo MUN MID	£7.9m	6.3
Gibbs-White V NFO MID	£8.0m	6.3
Ødegaard ARS MID	£6.8m	5.4
Rogers CHE MID	£7.7m	4.8
Haaland C MCI FWD	£15.6m	9.4
Wissa NEW FWD	£6.2m	4.0
João Pedro CHE FWD d, 75% chance	£7.8m	3.9
Bench, in order
Martinez CHE GKP	£5.0m	3.9
M.Sangaré BRE MID	£5.7m	4.3
Egan HUL DEF	£4.1m	3.9
De Cuyper BHA DEF	£4.9m	3.7

The transfers

Three moves went through before the deadline on Friday 18 September, at 18:30 UK: Palmer out for Mbeumo, Bijol out for Calafiori, and Szoboszlai out for Gibbs-White. Mbeumo and Gibbs-White are projected 6.3 each this week, the joint-best in our midfield, and Calafiori at 4.5 replaces a defender who was not starting.

Why a flagged striker is in the eleven

João Pedro is listed by FPL as "Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing". Our model projects him at 3.9, below M.Sangaré on 4.3, so on the raw numbers he should be on the bench.

He starts because of how substitutions work. If he plays no minutes at all, the first bench player who does play comes on in his place automatically, and we get their points instead. That makes starting him close to free in the case where he is ruled out: the eleven effectively becomes Sangaré's anyway. The case where it costs us is the awkward middle — he appears for fifteen or twenty minutes, returns almost nothing, and blocks the substitution.

So the bench order matters more than usual. M.Sangaré is first at 4.3, then Egan at 3.9 and De Cuyper at 3.7, with Martinez as the goalkeeper. Both outfield backups behind Sangaré are defenders, which keeps the substitution legal whichever way the eleven breaks.

The rest of the eleven

Guéhi at 6.9 is the highest-projected defender in the squad this week, with Gvardiol at 5.9 alongside him from the same defence. Tzolakis keeps goal at 4.3. In midfield, Mbeumo and Gibbs-White lead on 6.3, with Ødegaard at 5.4 and Rogers at 4.8.

Haaland's 9.4 is the reason the armband was never in doubt: no other player in the squad projects within three points of him this week.

Where this leaves the season

Our team has beaten the FPL Experts in three of four gameweeks, 7 points behind on total, and 33 points above the FPL average. The running comparison, including the weeks we lose, is on us v the FPL Experts.

How we worked this out

The projections are our model's expected points for this gameweek, published before the deadline and graded afterwards on the scorecard. The squad, captain and bench order are as submitted, and FPL publishes them itself once a deadline passes — which is the only reason this article exists after the deadline rather than before it. Live scores are on live scores.