FPL GW5 transfer targets: the best buys for the next six

The best FPL GW5 transfers, on our projections for Gameweeks 5 to 10, run through Manchester City and Arsenal. Haaland leads every player on 51.2 projected points across the six, Saka leads the midfielders on 40.6, and Guéhi is the top defender on 36.6 at £6.0m. Here is who to buy by position, where the value is, and which of this week's popular moves the model agrees with, before the deadline on Friday 18 September at 18:30 UK.

FPL GW5 transfer targets: the best buys for the next six

Player	Price	Owned	xP next 6
Goalkeepers
Raya ARS	£6.0m	40.8%	26.0
Tzolakis HUL	£4.6m	11.0%	25.4
Donnarumma MCI	£5.5m	7.7%	24.0
Martinez CHE	£5.0m	4.9%	23.7
Suzuki AVL	£5.0m	1.8%	23.7
Defenders
Guéhi MCI	£6.0m	18.5%	36.6
Gabriel ARS	£8.0m	23.4%	33.4
Gvardiol MCI	£5.7m	23.8%	31.6
Calafiori ARS	£5.8m	50.2%	30.5
Tarkowski EVE	£6.1m	13.5%	27.8
Midfielders
Saka ARS	£9.5m	12.4%	40.6
B.Fernandes MUN	£12.0m	41.3%	38.9
Mbeumo MUN	£7.9m	22.5%	36.7
Ødegaard ARS	£6.7m	19.5%	32.6
Rogers CHE	£7.7m	38.2%	32.2
Forwards
Haaland MCI	£15.5m	72.6%	51.2
Isak LIV	£9.1m	21.9%	30.3
Barry EVE	£5.6m	6.7%	27.5
Havertz ARS	£7.6m	7.9%	24.7
Calvert-Lewin LEE	£6.0m	23.2%	24.6

The best FPL transfers by position

Forwards. Haaland (£15.5m, 72.6% owned) has the highest projection in the game. The next forward is Isak on 30.3. FPL's price-change progress for Haaland is at 94.6%, so a rise may not be far away for anyone still planning to bring him in. Barry is the value forward: £5.6m for 27.5 projected points, or 4.9 per £1m, starting with Ipswich at home.

Midfielders. Saka (£9.5m) leads on 40.6, with Brighton away and then Leeds at home. The two Manchester United midfielders follow: B.Fernandes on 38.9 at £12.0m and Mbeumo on 36.7 at £7.9m, so Mbeumo gives you almost all of the projection for far less money. Ødegaard (32.6) and Rogers (32.2) complete the top five. For value, Tavernier returns 5.2 projected points per £1m at £6.1m.

Defenders. Guéhi is the pick on 36.6 and the best value defender as well, at 6.1 per £1m. Gabriel (33.4) and Gvardiol (31.6) follow, then Calafiori, already in 50.2% of squads, on 30.5. Bogle is the budget option at £4.5m, projected 27.2, or 6.0 per £1m.

Goalkeepers. Raya leads on 26.0, but Tzolakis is close behind on 25.4 at £4.6m and is the best value keeper at 5.5 per £1m.

What is a differential in FPL?

A differential is a player few managers own, so his points move you up the rankings in a way a template pick's cannot. These are the highest projections among players under 5% owned:

• Rúben (Manchester City, £5.5m, 1.9% owned): 27.3 over the six.
• Bogle (Leeds, £4.5m, 3.9%): 27.2, and the cheapest of the group.
• Mukiele (Sunderland, £5.4m, 2.0%): 25.9.
• Stach (Leeds, £6.0m, 2.7%): 25.6, the top differential midfielder.
• Mainoo (Manchester United, £5.5m, 1.6%): 25.1.

More are on the differentials page.

The crowd's moves against our projections

The most bought player this week is Rogers, with 450,632 transfers in, and our model has him fifth among midfielders on 32.2. Groß (380,416 in, 27.9) and Gibbs-White (348,926 in, 29.1) come next, while Gvardiol (343,102 in) is a popular move the model backs, third among defenders on 31.6.

On the way out, Elanga leads with 327,211 transfers out, and the model agrees: he is projected just 6.2 over the six. It is less convinced by the sales of Szoboszlai (319,509 out, 25.6) and Cherki (190,838 out, 28.9). And 188,651 managers have sold Bruno Fernandes, who has the second-highest midfield projection on 38.9. The full picture is on transfer trends.

How we worked this out

Projections are our model's expected points for Gameweeks 5 to 10, summed across the six. Value is projected points per £1m, for players projected 12 or more. Transfer counts, ownership and price-change progress are FPL's own figures. Compare anyone on all players, check each run on the fixture ticker, or build a whole squad in the squad builder.