FPL GW6 captain: Fernandes leads at 7.3 xP

Our FPL GW6 captain pick is B.Fernandes. Our model projects him at 7.3 expected points (xP) at home to TOT, the highest of any player this gameweek, with a 96% chance of starting and penalty duty. The deadline is Saturday 10 October, 11:00 UK.

The gap at the top is narrow, so this is a lean rather than a lock. Here are the ten highest projections for the gameweek.

Who should I captain in FPL GW6?

B.Fernandes is owned by 38.3% of managers and costs £11.9m. He is first on penalties for Manchester United, and his projected next six gameweeks total 36.5 xP. The fixture list after TOT is less friendly: our model has him at 4.8 at LEE in GW7, so this is a one-week captaincy case rather than a long hold.

His team-mate Mbeumo is the closest alternative at 7.1 xP, just 0.2 behind, with a 93% start probability. He costs £7.9m and is owned by 20.4%, and he is second in the penalty order. If you want the same fixture without the same ownership as the favourite, he is the pick.

Is Haaland the safe captain?

Haaland is projected at 6.8 xP away at LIV, 0.5 behind the top pick. He is owned by 73.9% of managers, so captaining him is the lowest-risk way to protect your rank: if he hauls, most of the field gains with you. He is also on penalties and has a 96% chance of starting.

The fixture is the hard part of the case. Our model's next six for him are strong from GW7, with 11.3 xP at home to IPS, so this week is arguably the one to look elsewhere and keep him in your side for what follows.

Other options and a differential

Behind the top three, the projections drop off. Groß is at 6.2 xP at SUN for £5.9m, and Saka is also at 6.1 at home to LEE. Saka is owned by only 14.5% and costs £9.6m, so he is a reasonable second-tier punt.

Defenders such as De Cuyper (6.1 xP, £5.0m) and Hall (5.8 xP) show up in the table, but a defender's projection comes mostly from clean sheet and appearance points, which makes for a lower ceiling than a penalty-taking midfielder. We would not captain either.

The differential by our rule, the highest projection among players under 10% owned, is Schuster. He is projected at 5.2 xP at AVL, 2.1 below the top pick, and owned by just 0.4%. He is a defender at £4.5m, so treat this as a curiosity rather than a recommendation.

What are the risks?

• Rotation: start probabilities sit between 88% and 96% across the list. Groß and De Cuyper are on 89%, Hall on 88%.
• Variance: a gap of 0.2 xP between B.Fernandes and Mbeumo is well within the noise of a single match.
• Shared fixture: both of the top two play TOT, so captaining one and owning the other is a hedge only against a poor team performance, not against a bad individual one.

How we worked this out

The projections come from our own model, which combines start probability, fixture difficulty, expected goals and assists, and set-piece duty. They are forecasts, not facts. See model accuracy for how earlier gameweeks went, and check predicted line-ups and injuries and team news before the deadline. The full ranking lives on the captain picks table.